Back in early April (when Mockus was polling under 10%), maladjusted pointed out that a recent political alliance between two popular mayors might just shake up Colombia's presidential elections....well that certainly has happened, as Mockus and Santos seem to be just about neck and neck in every poll and Mockus is now the favorite in a possible second round. But another part of the equation was whether or not support from the left was forthcoming, and now we seem to have an answer. After Gustavo Petro of the left-leaning Polo Democratico hinted at a possible second round alliance, Mockus had the cold water ready:
Colombian Green Party presidential candidate Antanas Mockus ruled out any partnership with Polo Democratico leader Gustavo Petro on Monday, saying that the Green's only alliance would be with "the people."
Prompting a Petro response via twitter (god damn the tweeter), "Good bye Mockus, we'll go it alone."
Really, this was probably a bigger deal before Mockus took off in the polls, and he probably is confident that he can win without Polo's support, but recent polling shows that it wouldn't be insignificant. According to the most recent poll from Datexco, Petro is now in third place with 7.5% of the vote, moving ahead of conservative Noemi Sanin. Mockus is no lefty, and he's largely toed the line in terms of backing "democratic security" policies, so maybe the alliance with Petro was never destined to be. But if Mockus does win the election he's not going to find a lot of love in congress, where the Green Party is not well represented, and if your going to reach out to someone it best be Polo over PIN. Of course, regardless of political alliances, left-leaning voters will have to choose between Santos and Mockus in a potential second round...not exactly a hard choice for the left, even if your not a big Mockus fan.
In any case lets take a look in chart form at the most recent polling from Datexco, via the irreplaceable Colombia Reports:
Here's part of something i stuck in the subscriber weekly on March 21st when Santos was regarded as the obvious winner and polling 35% vs Sanín's 20% or so (my how time flies):
ReplyDelete"My personal opinion right now is “too close to call” on this election. The make-up of the runoff will be all important, but until May 30th Santos will make most of the foreign media headlines, get labelled Uribe’s favoured and be considered by many as a shoo-in. However the real battle starts in the second round of voting and the pacts, political alliances and potential powersharing deals between the two candidates still in the running and those left behind will seal the eventual winner. It really is far too difficult to call a winner right now."
Apart from the surprising way in which Mockus has wrested publicity and teevee time away from Santos, I'm sticking with that. The pacts that Mockus forms for round two will decide the whole caboodle and you can bet dollaz to donutz the left get enough concessions from El Beardo to bring them into the fold. In other words, Petro has been playing his cards very well so far.