Ideological Labels Are Fun: Colombia and Chile

Did you know that, despite simplistic labels to the contrary, the US' favorite client state actually is not the free-market paragon most people think? That's right, I'm talking about the supposedly "free-market" darling Colombia, which according to a new Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) working paper has been pursuing extensive industrial policies for quite some time.

The economic merits of these policies aside, this underscores that just because a country has a horrible human rights track record and is in the State Department's pocket, it doesn't necessarily mean it's also "neoliberal." In other words, the media (especially up north) likes to assume Colombia is "market-friendly" simply because it is US-friendly and has signed a handful of Free Trade Agreements. But in reality it has also been pursuing fairly heterodox policies for a while.

One obvious example of this is Colombia's long-running affair with capital controls. As maladjusted has pointed out before, Colombia's regulations on international capital flows are currently the highest in the region. During the 1990s, when South America regained access to international capital markets and all the cool kids on the block were liberalizing, Colombia had smart regulations in place to tax inflows. This helped reduce flow volatility, prevented excessive exchange rate appreciation and lengthened the maturity of foreign liabilities (which lowers the likelihood of experiencing a financial crisis).

In any case, the point is that when it comes to labeling a country's economic policy, what's accurate is seldom the same as what is politically sexy. The truth in South America has always been more nuanced than "neoliberal countries grow, leftist countries don't."

A natural parallel in this regard is the case of Chile, which to much fanfare staked out claims to first world status last year when it was officially admitted to the OECD. The conventional narrative holds that Allende's socialist policies were destroying the country before the free-market champion Pinochet took power and, with help from the Chicago boys, set the foundations for the country's future prosperity. But, of course, the reality isn't so simple.

Chile hasn't prospered because of pure neoliberalism. It has prospered because of resource nationalism (even Pinochet was smart enough to keep the state-owned copper company, CODELCO), the state promotion of exports (salmon, wine, and virtually every other major export success have received extensive gov. assistance) and, on the macroeconomic level, well devised capital controls (Chile is actually the paradigmatic example of success in this area).

Whatever.

Dichotomies challenged. Reality trumps ideological labeling. And I'm a closet post-modernist. The End.

U.S. to Hollman Morris: Stay Out!

Just in case you needed further evidence that the Obama administration is continuing with the same policies towards Latin America as the Bush administration, prominent Colombian journalist Hollman Morris, who Big 'Al Uribe once called a "an ally of terrorism," was denied a visa by the US embassy in Bogota, this according to Matthew Rothschild at The Progressive. Morris was headed to the US after being selected as a fellow by the Neiman Foundation at Harvard.

You may remember from a post awhile back, that Morris was the target of a smear campaign by the DAS. The link was to Plan Colombia and Beyond who had the documents outlining DAS movies against not only Morris, but other opposition groups and journalists as well. Adam Isaacson wrote at the time:

Here are the files obtained by Hollman Morris, with English translations. They go beyond surveillance and wiretapping to reveal what it calls a “political warfare” campaign of dirty tricks and threats against President Uribe’s political adversaries. They date from 2005, the last year of Jorge Noguera’s tenure as DAS director.

The guy digs deep, goes where people don't want him to go and is a verifiable bad ass.  As Rothschild writes, quoting heavily from Human Rights Watch, who gave him a "Defender of Human Rights" award in 2007:

“A journalist and human rights activist, Morris has dedicated his career to uncovering the truth about atrocities committed on all sides: by right-wing paramilitaries, left-wing guerrillas, and government authorities,” said Human Rights Watch in granting him the award. “Morris has faced serious harassment and death threats for his work. . . . Human Rights Watch honors Morris for his courage and unfaltering dedication to exposing Colombia’s most egregious human rights abuses.”

But I suppose he's been just a bit too critical of the US' favorite ally to be welcome into the States, eh? Lets get this right, guy exposes DAS misdeeds, the US needs to cut off assistance to DAS, Colombia needs figure out a new way to spy on the president of Ecuador, and run smear campaigns against their opponents, and then the US denies this guy a visa? Sure sounds like the State Department is on the right side of this one! In fact, if you look at the image above, you'll see "Gestionar la suspension de la visa" as one of DAS' courses of action against Morris...Really State Department? Really? Straight outta the DAS playbook? Damn, that's just low.


(image from Plan Colombia and Beyond)

How Not To Normalize Relations in One Easy Step

This must have made for one hell of a phone call. Following Santos’ victory in Colombia's presidential elections last Sunday, Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa called him to congratulate him on his victory. Needless to say relations between the two countries are a lil rocky, I mean, a court in Ecuador recently issued an arrest warrant for the Colombia president-elect. In any case, following the phone call there was much hoop-la about the normalization of relations, yadda, yadda…well, how’s this for normalization (via Bloomberg):

Colombian police have been tapping the telephones of Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa and government and military officials since 2008

 But what's more is it’s not like Santos was an innocent bystander in any of this, the report includes this juicy lil nugget:

Colombian President Alvaro Uribe and incoming President Juan Manuel Santos have been briefed at least three times on the operation, which began in the aftermath of a Colombian raid on a rebel base camp inside Ecuador in March 2008

Which brings us back to that phone call. Can’t you just imagine Santos answering Correa’s call, while three giggling DAS agents in a sixth story apartment in Quito listen in? Yup, got it.

Not to worry though, it’s not like Ecuador is the only one to get this special treatment. From EUObserver:

A group of MEPs is calling for action as further details of an alleged covert operation conducted by the Colombian intelligence agency (DAS) continue to emerge, with one of its reported aims being to undermine the authority of the European Parliament.

Recently released documents that were confiscated from the DAS by the Colombian Attorney General's office highlight the nature of "Operation Europe."

Its objective was to "neutralise the influence of the European judicial system, the European Parliament's human rights sub-committee, and the office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights," reads one text seen by this website.

And yes, the “alleged action in Europe includes phone tapping and the interception of emails”.

Cocaine+Futbol+World Cup=Great Documentary

If the equation above confuses you, or pops up on your screen when your boss is looking over your shoulder, apologies. But bear with me here. First off, I'm back and props to my comrade Gringo Juan for holding it down while I was off gallivanting through the woods. I also got to catch up on some reading and watching, the reading recommendation is still a few days off, but let's get to the movie recommendation: "Two Escobars".

It's a documentary by Jeff and Michael Zimbalist which aired as part of ESPN's 30 for 30 series. I know, ESPN, not exactly who you would turn to for your documentary needs, but this one is well worth the time.

It traces the rise of Pablo Escobar and Colombian futbol (and star player Andres Escobar, the only Colombian ever to be offered a spot on Inter Milan). Everyone knows Pablo, but not everyone knows he was a futbol fanatic and also played a huge role in the barrios in Colombia, especially Medellin. In his more formative years, he donated soccer fields in poor neighborhoods throughout the country, but even in his later years the passion for soccer never left him. Colombia was far from a soccer powerhouse and much of the top talent often left for bigger money and more fame overseas in Europe....until the cocaine cash started to flow, that is.

All of a sudden not only could club teams keep the top talent, but players from all over the region were coming to play in Colombia. Turns out a soccer organization is a really good way to launder money, ticket sales being in cash and all. Every drug lord had a team, or two. Pablo was no exception, and the other Escobar, Andres was quickly rising to the top of his profession.

Colombia became one of the favorites to win the 1994 World Cup, and as violence raged at home, the national soccer team became the Colombian government's best PR tool. The team was a way to show the world that Colombia was not just about violence and to give Colombians an escape from the everyday hardships. But, just as Pablo's notorious run came to a crashing halt, so did Colombian soccer.

I really don't want to give much more away, it's a tragic and fascinating story, and incredibly informative to boot (not bad for an ESPN docu). As much as the story can carry the movie on its own, the historic footage is really the icing on the cake. Colombia, in their bright jerseys, played some beautiful futbol back in the day and they've got the footage to prove it. As an example of some of the team's flair, here's a clip that you may have seen before, Colombian goalie Rene Higuita's infamous scorpion kick:



Damn. Unfortunately, Higuita was not on the team for the '94 World Cup, for reasons that you will find out when you watch the movie. Not only is there amazing footage of the national team, but also of the brutally deadly drug war, including some footage of Pablo that is really stunning. Pieced together with interviews with such characters as Pablo's right hand man (in jail for murder) and his cousin, it makes for a must watch. It doesn't paper over the massive atrocities that Pablo is responsible for, but neither does it just give you one side of the story. Footage from his funeral shows the thousands and thousands of grieving Colombians, mostly from the barrios, who had lost one of the only men who had truly provided for them. Nor does it overlook the heavy hand of Carlos Castano and Los Pepes (later of AUC paramilitary fame), and their support from El Norte. Perhaps, since its a sports network, the political considerations don't weigh as heavily, but good for ESPN for airing this informative, entertaining, and deeply tragic documentary.

Here is a 5 minute introduction to the movie, and below, the upcoming schedule for when it will be on ESPN, ESPN deportes, and ESPN classic.



Saturday June 26, 10PM ESPN Classic, Friday July 2, 1am ESPN 2, Sunday July 4, 1pm ESPN 2. Check your local listing, all times EST.

For the record, I was not paid to shill for this movie, it just kicks ass.

Colombia, Venezuela and Exports: Biggest Loser Edition

A Bloomberg article today touches on how the diplomatic dispute with Venezuela is affecting Colombia’s economy, as it has resulted in plummeting trade with their second most important trading partner. Maladjusted wrote awhile back about how a Mockus presidency could be good for business if it means a reopening of trade between Venezuela and Colombia. Well, it doesn’t look like Mockus has a snowball’s chance in hell to actually win this thing, but as updated numbers are out from Colombia’s DANE, it’s worth taking a look to see how continued diplomatic problems (almost assured with Santos) will continue to weigh on the economy. Already, as Bloomberg points out, Colombia has the second lowest growth forecast in the region, and the collapse in trade is at least part of the problem. So, lets run some numbers through Maladjusted Charts and see what we can find out, has Colombia found new markets for these goods? What sectors are the worst hit?

First off, lets get the basics down, just how much has trade with Venezuela collapsed, and who has picked up the slack?



Before the drop off from Venezuela, the US was still Colombia’s largest trading partner, but was followed by Venezuela (all alone in second place), Ecuador and of all places, Switzerland. But through the first 5 months of this year, the US has remained its dominant position, while China has catapulted from obscurity to accounting for nearly 8% of total exports, about double that of Venezuela or Ecuador, as the chart below shows.



So from the above, it does seem that Colombia has fared pretty well finding alternative markets for their exports to Venezuela, indeed total exports increased over the same period last year. Unfortunately for some, looking at the breakdown of goods reveals a slightly different picture. Some 23% of exports with Venezuela during the period of Jan.-April 2009 were animals and animal products, a sector that accounted for around 5% of Colombia’s total exports. This year, however, Venezuela has stopped buying these products, and the sector has taken an extreme hit, making up less than 1% of total exports so far this year. The chart below shows how while exports to the US have skyrocketed, none of it has come from animals and animal products.



So what has accounted for the rapid rise in exports to the US? Well, simply, oil. Colombia has increased their oil production this year, and coupled with a rise in prices from last year, exports of combustibles accounts for nearly the entire rise in total exports, with most of the surplus going to the US.



Another sector that seems to have taken a hit from the Venezuela dispute is textiles. Overall, despite being a smaller component of total exports, textiles accounted for the second largest drop from last year to this year after animals and animal products. Exports to Venezuela of textiles dropped by $125 million, while overall exports of textiles fell by $105 million. As the chart below clearly shows Colombia has been unable to replace the Venezuela market for textiles.



In the end, what this means is summed up nicely in a quote from the Bloomberg article referenced earlier, “Colombia is selling more oil to the U.S.,” said Sandy [an economist with Credit Suisse Group AG]. “For the industrial sector and food producers, more sales to the U.S. don’t do anything.”

So while total exports have increased over 2009, it’s really not saying much as 2009 was clearly not the best year. And although trade has increased greatly with China and with the US, there have been sectoral shifts more so than straight replacement. I would say that the increased trade with China is definitely a good thing for Colombia, since before the recent increase Colombia exported less to China as a percent of total exports than just about every other country in South America. On the other hand, increasing dependence on the US may not be the most desirable outcome here. I’m sure the US will be happy to buy up Colombian oil…especially over Venezuelan oil, but look at Mexico…do you really want to be that tied to the US economy? Not to say that being tied to Venezuela’s economy right now sounds very good either, but looking at the next few years up north is not very promising. The UCLA Anderson Forecast was just released and projects growth for the next three years below the 3% long-term nominal growth rate. And yes, unemployment is expected to still be over 8.5% by 2013. Not exactly a booming export market.

But more importantly, and certainly more importantly for those most affected in Colombia by the trade fall off, are the sectoral shifts that will occur over the medium term if exports to Venezuela don’t return, or if new markets for those products can’t be found. While the overall export picture doesn’t seem dire, the industries that have been most affected, animal farmers and textile producers have been severely hit. Farmers, while they account for a smaller percent of GDP, make up nearly 20% of the workforce and have been the worst hit by the dispute with Venezuela.

Well, I’m sure this is WAY more than you ever wanted to know about trade between Venezuela and Colombia, I think it may be more than I wanted to know, but there ya have it. Next time maybe we can see if Venezuela has found new markets to import all that food that they no longer get from Colombia….then again, it’s probably just rotting in a container somewhere anyhow…

Diplomacy Colombia Style, Starring Hillary Clinton

So this post was going to be about the irony of Hillary Clinton acknowledging Colombia's advancement in human rights at the same press conference that Big Al' Uribe criticized the sentencing of former Army Colonel Alfonso Plazas Vega to 30 years in prison. I mean all the guy did was get convicted for the forced disappearances of 11 individuals in 1985. Or, as Uribe described it "someone who was simply trying to fulfill their duty", adding, "That hurts. That makes me sad." Awww. Just fulfilling your duty eh? Is that what you have to say about killing peasants and dressing them up as guerrillas to fulfill quotas too? Whatever, in any case, as ridiculous as his statements may be, the post was ruined because, well quite simply, Hillary Clinton didn't exactly say what I thought she had.

So what happened?

I read this Colombia Reports article that included this line, "Clinton also recognized advances that Colombia had made in terms of human rights." And where did that link take me? Well, the website of the President of Colombia of course! Where I read that Clinton said:

“Reconocemos los avances en derechos humanos que ha hecho Colombia, los retos que aún persisten y la necesidad de la vigilancia, del compromiso en ese tema"

Or, loosely translated:

We recognize the advances in human rights that Colombia has made...blah blah blah

And I'm like damn, Hillary Clinton is recognizing some advances, at the same press conference that Uribe slams the jailing of a human rights abuser and a few days after the International Trade Union Confederation announced that half of the killings of unionists in the WORLD happened in COLOMBIA. But because it's the Colombia government, there is just this hint of doubt about everything they have to tell me, so I check the quote with the State Department's transcript (more trustworthy? Eh, probably), and this is what I find:

We also discussed Colombia’s efforts to enhance human rights, the strides made, the challenges that remain, the ongoing need for vigilance and commitment.

Wait, what? "We discussed Colombia's efforts to enhance human rights"? I mean, even loosely translated that's not "We recognize the advances in human rights". At least she did include discussing "the strides made", but fair to say this statement from the Presidents website is grossly overstated, right?

So not exactly the post we set out to write, but hey, on the same day Uribe criticizes the jailing of a big time rights abuser, the President's press secretary grossly exaggerates the US secretary of state's comments concerning so called "advancements" in human rights....yes, just another day in sunny Colombia!

More on Military Spending in South America

First off, props to Otto. I had a whole post ready to roll with pretty charts and data on military spending in South America when my RSSy turned blue and up pops "Military Spending in Latin America, 2009". So due props, but while the whole SIPRI study isn't available, the military expenditure database has been updated with numbers through 2009. So I'll add my two cents with a bit of a historical run-down. First, a look at total regional military expenditure 2000-2009 (in million US$, all $ figures are in constant 2008 dollars):



So there is clearly an increase in spending on military shit over the last ten years, but where is it coming from? Well, this provides some indication, as we break each year down by a country's share of the total:



It is a bit tricky to see since Brazil is such a large proportion, but that yellow one that gets much larger and the light blue above it...those are the only two countries who have seen their share of total regional military spending increase over the last 10 years. The countries, Colombia and Ecuador. The darker blue, all the way at the bottom (Venezuela), increases a bunch in 2006-2007, but is now at a lower level than in 2000.

Onwards; lets take a look at the major players but with some context, how about, spending per person (population numbers are from the IMF):



Again, as Otto points out, Hillary's scare stories about Venezuela just don't pan out in the data. Chile blows everyone else out of the water, spending over $300 per person. Next comes Colombia, followed by Brazil. In fact, both Ecuador and Uruguay spend more per person than Venezuela, but I wanted to include Venezuela in the above chart to make the point. Also interesting is that over the last four years, Chile's per person spending, while still significantly higher than anyone else, has been decreasing steadily. Not easy to take money from the Chilean military, who still have quite some clout, but well done by Ms. Bachelet, we'll see if Pinera can keep it up. On the other hand, Colombia continues to just spend more and more no matter how you look at it...how's that for "democratic security"? Poverty doesn't drop, military spending just keeps on rising...

Finally, as if to just hammer home the point, check out The Count breakdown how little money it would take to bring all the children in the region above the poverty line...hmm, wonder where they could come up with that....

Best Breakdown of the First Round in Colombia

Want the most detailed, complete breakdown of the first round available? Check out the coverage at FiveThirtyEight. Geographical breakdown? Check. Vote by poverty level? Check. Exactly how bad were the polling companies? Check. Does Mockus have a chance? Check (and the answer is pretty clearly no).

As a teaser lets rip the image showing the polling companies margin of error:



Gross. Go check out the whole post, which is definitely worth a read. Here's to hoping they keep the international coverage going.

(side note: congrats to FiveThirtyEight for partnering up with the New York Times)

Market Reaction to First Round in Colombia

Just a quick look at the market reaction to Sunday's election. There was a lot of talk about how Mockus didn't scare investors, that may be true, but there is a lot of coverage today about how happy the markets are at Santos' big first round. As Marcelo Ballve pointed out, there was some risk surrounding the "unpredictability factor", and so Santos' big win appears to have taken that out of the equation.


First, Reuters:

The peso currency and benchmark TES bonds firmed on Monday, while the country's risk rating on JPMorgan's EMBI Plus index fell 8 points to 231 points.

"Now there is much more certainty about what might happen and what lies in store for the country. As well economic matters, the teams are well regarded. That generates stability and confidence recovers," said Alexander Cardenas, director of economic research at Colombian brokerage Acciones and Valores.

And, from Bloomberg:

The yield on Colombia’s benchmark 11 percent bonds due July 2020 fell three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 8.04 percent at 11:02 a.m. New York time, according to Colombia’s stock exchange. The bond’s price rose 0.207 centavo to 120.003 centavos per peso.

…

“The market knows Santos,” said Bertrand Delgado, a senior Latin America economist at Roubini Global Economics, a research company in New York.

So Mockus may not have been bad, but the markets have spoke, and they clearly like Sunday's results. At least for now, it appears the country does too (I know polling in Colombia is notoriously bad, but seriously, you gotta wonder about this one, right?).

Thomas Friedman SmackDown

I'm down anytime someone lays the smackdown to Friedman, but this is exceptional, and follows an exceptionally heinous op-ed this morning. Thank god for FAIR:

Thomas Friedman is upset in his New York Times column today (5/26/10) because Brazilian President Lula da Silva negotiated a nuclear deal with Iran. Asks Friedman, "Is there anything uglier than watching democrats sell out other democrats to a Holocaust-denying, vote-stealing Iranian thug just to tweak the U.S. and show that they, too, can play at the big power table?" And he answers himself: "No, that's about as ugly as it gets."

Friedman quotes a source complaining that Iran had just executed "political prisoners who were tortured into confessions," but "didn't mention a word about human rights." Friedman presumably is aware that the U.S., too, has prisoners that it has tortured into confessions, and that it maintains the right to execute such captives. Should Lula have said a word about those human rights issues as well, or would that just be an attempt to "tweak the U.S."?

Friedman has another expert who accuses Lula of "the thwarting of democracy across Latin America." Friedman's evidence: "He regularly praises Venezuela’s strongman Hugo Chávez and Fidel Castro, the Cuban dictator...while denouncing Colombia, one of the great democratic success stories, because it let U.S. planes use Colombian airfields to fight narco-traffickers."

Please do click through and read the whole thing, the take town of Colombia as "one of the great democratic success stories" is priceless.

Also, for a more detailed, longer take down, see Robert Naiman in the Huffington Post. You want to see "ugly as it gets", watch this video of Friedman defending the Iraq War. Suck. On. This. Friedman.

Juan Forero Part II: Redemption

All I've got to say to Forero is, "Just when I think you couldn't possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this…and totally redeem yourself!"

Well maybe not totally, but it is definitely a start. From today's Post:

Now a former police major, Juan Carlos Meneses, has alleged that Uribe's younger brother, Santiago Uribe, led a fearsome paramilitary group in the 1990s in this northern town that killed petty thieves, guerrilla sympathizers and suspected subversives. In an interview with The Washington Post, Meneses said the group's hit men trained at La Carolina, where the Uribe family ran an agro-business in the early 1990s.

Go read the whole thing as it is well worth your time. You can also read the Q & A with Meneses here.

On a related note, this has got to make Santos cringe, as it is exactly the type of revelation maladjusted previously referred to that could swing the election in favor of Mockus. I think it is still highly unlikely either candidate gets 50% plus 1 in the first round, and maybe this blows over by the second, but it can't possibly help. Not surprising that the Colombian government was quick to call out the Post for running the story so close to the elections.

News and Notes on the Colombia Election

Always a lot of coverage of the Colombian presidential election, and today is no exception, so here are just a few links to some interesting bits and pieces:

• Al Jazeera has a video report up where Teresa Bo looks at how the false positive scandal is hurting Santos' campaign. She speaks with family members of the victims, as well as presidential candidate Rafael Pardo and researchers who claim that the killings continue.
  
  
• La Silla Vacia looks at the internet campaign of Santos. The dirty tricks continue. They also note that yet another American is in on the campaign, Ravi Singh, who was the internet guru of the Obama campaign. Read the whole thing, they're really going all out. (via Colombia Reports)
  
  
• More beef between Polo and Mockus. Mockus had said that nominating Petro was "a clear departure from the FARC", a slap in the face to the rest of the party. For some good commentary on alliances between candidates, check out Otto's comment here.
  
  
• Want to know what regions support Santos? Semana has the answer. For full coverage of the elections, check out Votebien 2010.
  
  
• Finally, some more polling. Everything is pointing to the race tightening back up as we get closer and closer. Still doesn't seem like anyone has a chance in the first round, things should get real interesting in the second.

Juan Forero, Chief Propagator

Juan Forero, the Washington Post's resident LatAm ignoramus, goes all in today with his article about Chavez and ties to terrorism. There is really nothing new here; magic laptops, former FARC rebels speaking anonymously, and of course "Colombian government documents". No surprise that the article got Ray Walser's panties in a bunch.

A couple points though; first and foremost, why the fuck would anybody trust anything from the Colombian government? On the same day as Forero's article, Latin America News Dispatch has a terrific rundown on Colombia during the Uribe years and specifically the intelligence agency, DAS. One of the many issues raised being that "documents surfaced indicating that the DAS coordinated “political warfare” against government critics, by disseminating false rumors accusing them of connections with leftist guerrillas." And it gets even better, the article quotes from some files that were released recently, outlining how DAS planned on linking a certain group they didn't like to rebels:

The mission’s objective was to “establish ties” between the collective and the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN), a guerrilla group. “STRATEGIES: Sabotage. ACTION: Exchange message with ELN leader, which will be found during a search of the premises.”

So it is public knowledge that the DAS actually tries to plant evidence, and then find it during raids on the camps. Sound familiar? It should, since it's the basis for almost all the allegations against Venezuela and Chavez.

So there are also former FARC rebels who spoke anonymously to Forero. But if this is such conclusive evidence of anything then why hasn't Forero written about the former DAS member Rafael Garcia who outlined how DAS coordinated with the Venezuelan opposition and Colombian paramilitary forces to assassinate Chavez. Or the former Army major who said there were some 2000 Colombian paramilitaries in Venezuela trying to topple the government.

Now, I'm not saying all these allegations are true, but that's exactly the point. Former members of DAS, just like former members of the FARC have plenty of reasons to say plenty of different things. But you'd never see the MSM air these types of allegations against Colombia, only if they fit the narrative of evil, terrorist supporting Venezuela. But maladjusted is hardly the first to notice this, just the most recent to point it out. For a much deeper look at the hypocritical coverage of Colombia vs. Venezuela, check out this FAIR study, or Kevin Young's take for Media Accuracy on Latin America. Young looks at how MSM coverage fits the Edward Herman/Noam Chomsky propaganda model, put simply:

The model predicts that the news media will look favorably upon the Colombian government of Álvaro Uribe, a close U.S. ally, while consistently vilifying the Venezuelan government of Hugo Chávez, whom the U.S. government frequently identifies as an antagonist. If the model holds, U.S. media outlets will be found to portray the Uribe government as relatively democratic, progressive, and peaceful, while casting the Chávez government as authoritarian, regressive, and militaristic.

Well, the model holds, and Forero is the chief propagator.

Smear Campaign in Colombia

Man, Santos sure is getting desperate. Colombia Reports writes today about the increasing use of smear tactics in the Colombia presidential campaign, "As Green Party candidate Antanas Mockus' popularity increases, so too do the attempts to sully his name." Last week banners started appearing with slogans criticizing Mockus, trying to tie his campaign to Chavez. CR continues:

Votebien political analyist Rodrigo Lozada says that the tactics seen today in Colombia "were copied from the campaigns in the United States. The idea is find the opponents' weak points, exaggerate and distort them, to make them look bad before society."

Maybe not such a surprise, given James Carville's role in the campaign...a smear campaign in Bolivia led to the election of Goni...another one of Carville's campaigns. But there is another political consultant who showed up in Colombia in recent days that probably better explains the situation, CR has the dirt:

Santos has relaunched his campaign strategy with Venezuelan spin doctor J.J. Rendon at the helm. Rendon has been called an "expert in rumorology" and 'the king of 'black' propaganda." In 2007 the Venezuelan publicist was almost deported due to accusations that he had blackmailed Congressman Nicolas Uribe by threatening that he would publish photos of the politician cavorting with prostitutes if Uribe didn't fire a certain employee. Uribe resigned from the Partido de la U campaign in protest when Santos contracted Rendon.

Since Rendon's arrival on the scene, a pro-Santos website has been launched, which attempts to discredit Mockus. The same banners that appeared in Cali are published on the website, along with videos and a cartoon depicting Mockus as Chavez's buddy. Again the inference is that Mockus is pro-Chavez atheist, who plans to extradite President Uribe.

Ah yes, Rendon (the one between Lobo and Uribe in the pic above)...who you might remember led the voter fraud charge in Venezuela in the 2004 referendum. Rendon also ran the campaign of former Venezuela president Carlos Andres Perez (eventually arrested for stealing public money) back in the 1980s, as well as doing PR work for Venezuelan defense ministers....ya know the defense ministers who killed hundreds of civilians during the Caracazo. He is especially notorious in Mexico, where, as Al Giordano pointed out, he was implicated in eight different criminal cases in 2001 for "printing anonymous propaganda… in which the proposals of the PAN party candidate for the mayoralty of Puebla, Luis Paredes Moctezuma, were distorted." Recently, he was seen shaking hands and advising Pepe "reconciliation" Lobo in Honduras. Sure is some good company Santos is keeping these days. Already since he joined the campaign, three of Santos' closest assistants have left the campaign, probably not too excited about cavorting with someone with such a lovely past as Rendon.

I don't think this is going to cut it though. His presence has already gotten a ton of press in Colombia and throughout the region, and its not exactly a secret what a slime ball this guy is. If Mockus is popular because he represents a change from "politics as usual", then a "politics as usual" smear campaign is not going to do the trick. Nice try Santos.

Mockus good for business?

So maladjusted hasn't done any scientific study on this, but the guess is that most casual observers would think the Colombian business community will support Santos in the upcoming election. It's not like Mockus' rise in the polls is rattling the markets or anything like that, but business generally likes continuity (and right wingers), not newcomers who dress up in super hero costumes and dispatch mimes to ridicule traffic violators. That said, one thing businesses like even more are profits. Currently, exports to Venezuela have collapsed (due to some testy relations, we'll say) and while the US has graciously stepped in (see the graphs below), the fact remains that Venezuela is right next door and even though they are pushing an FTA with the US, does Colombia really want to be EVEN MORE dependent on the US (just look at Mexico).

According to Reuters, "Colombia says the trade conflict could trim around one percent off its economic growth this year." That ain't no joke, especially not when your coming off this past year. The article also mentions that Colombia has relatively few exports to China compared to the rest of the region. So maybe to the extent that China takes the place of Venezuela that could be a good thing, but it seems the US is picking up most of the slack.


So this is where Mockus' statements about Venezuela come into play. During the presidential debate the other night Mockus stressed the need to separate relations with Venezuela from those with the US. This would be a serious break from the Uribe years in Colombia, where it seemed like their privileged relationship with the US was always put before everything else. Given that Colombia's neighbors aren't too thrilled with Santos, it seems pretty clear that Mockus would be the candidate most likely to repair relations with Venezuela and Ecuador. And who stands to benefit the most from that? Colombian exporters...



So maybe I'm over estimating the effect this is having, and how important this is for Colombian businesses (in which case let me know). Regardless, from everything I've read Mockus' economic policies would not differ much from Santos, and in any case it would be hard to argue that better regional relations would be a BAD thing for business.

(all images courtesy of Colombia's DANE)

Quote(s) of the Day

First, from Miguel d'Escoto the former President of the UN General Assembly on the US' role in the region, via Democracy NOW!:

We need the United States as much as we need arsenic, and that is the fact. We don’t need it. We would need it, if they wanted to join the rest of humanity and together work for a better future for all of us, but they are not doing that. They are instilling, they have instilled, a culture of death, of greed, of selfishness. And this is killing the world.

Word. And secondly and more comical, from Colombia presidential candidate and former Defense Minister Juan Manual Santos, describing the differences between him and Antanas Mockus, via Colombia Reports:

"I am different from him in many ways. Firstly, I shaved off my beard. I believe in God. I believe in having an army."

My preference is for beards...and atheism and no army for that matter...

Business Weak on Colombia's GDP growth

The folks over at Business Weak, in an otherwise decent article, told its readers today that Colombia's GDP more than doubled since Uribe took office in 2002 (this is one of those moments when I really wish I could just cue Otto's owl). But then, after Dean Baker kindly explained the difference between nominal and real GDP, Business Weak posted an updated version of the article:

Under Uribe’s watch, foreign investors have poured as much as $50 billion into industries including oil and coal, according to the central bank. Gross domestic product measured in constant dollars has climbed about 37 percent according to the World Bank, while the benchmark IGBC stock index has risen more than ten-fold.

Oooh... "measured in constant dollars"... sounds like pretty fancy stuff. Nice to see them make the correction but it's really quite disturbing to see such basic mistakes coming from one of the world's leading business publications.

Paramilitaries are "capturing" the state

A real interesting video piece from the Latin American News Dispatch:

Colombian journalist and political analyst Claudia López talks about how the paramilitaries are infiltrating the political system; she would know, it was in part her investigative reporting that led to the parapolitics inquiries. So while she expresses hope that now only 29% of congress has ties to paramilitaries (it was 37%), everyone should listen to her when she says that she still believes that they are “capturing” the state.

And just in case you don’t get how awesome human rights are in Colombia, the video notes that she was laid off from the Colombian daily El Tiempo for an article she published last year. Surprise, surprise, the US’ favorite client state is not only controlled by paramilitaries but according to the IACHR is close to being labeled a place where "you can barely say that there is freedom of expression."

López explains the situation with El Tiempo:

“Why was I laid off from El Tiempo? Because I published a column, based on facts and proof, that demonstrated that El Tiempo was publishing false data and misleading the public because of their political and commercial interests.”

The paper considered it a resignation letter. I guess more convenient than considering it a problem.

Bogotá Cambió

So who is this Antanas Mockus guy? I mean, we all know he's a presidential candidate in Colombia and is rapidly rising in the polls... but who is Mockus the man? Where does he come from and what makes him tick?

Well now you can find out. The man was hugely successful as two-time mayor of Bogotá, where he set off what is arguably the strangest, most post-modern, and all around awesome process of urban renewal ever. As just one example that doesn't even begin to scratch the surface, this guy fired 3200 officers of Bogotá's notoriously corrupt traffic police and... replaced them with traffic mimes! Yes, mimes whose job it was to enforce traffic laws. Could I make this shit up?

And you know what's the real kicker? His unorthodox approach to city politics, inspired by his background in philosophy, paid off. But don't believe me, watch the great documentary below. And when I say great, I mean balls to the wall awesome. Cuddle up with a blanket and some popcorn and enjoy.

Oh and did I mention that before running for major he was the president of the National University of Colombia and...umm... mooned an auditorium full of people? True story.

Here's part 1:



part 2, part 3, part4, part 5, part 6, part 7.

Killer Combo Could Shake up Presidential Election in Colombia

The newest polling data on the presidential elections does not really paint a different picture than anything in the past , but there is some important news from over the weekend that could change the landscape a bit.



As you can see Santos has a pretty decent lead, but not over 50%, which would result in a run-off election. Based on the polls he would face off with either Sanis or Mockus. Which is where the important news comes in, last week Mockus invited former Medellin Mayor Sergio Fajardo to be his running mate. Well, it looks like Fajardo will accept and the duo could seriously pose a threat to Santos, even with his star adviser James Carville at his side. Before municipal elections last month Fajardo was polling second behind either Santos or Uribe, depending on who would/could run. After his party flopped in the municipal elections, however, his polling dropped as well, making him a nice target for Mockus, whose Green Party did better than expected.

Personally, I still think Santos is probably the favorite, but the Polo and Liberal parties will have to decide whether or not to put their support behind the Mockus/Fajardo ticket. With a little more support from the left, and who knows, maybe a scandal or two, this could get very interesting. If this goes to a run-off with Santos v. Mockus/Fajardo it could be a dramatically different presidential election than what many have expected; which was that no serious contender would change Uribe's policies. A serious challenger from the center-left could open up the terms of debate in Colombia, and that should be a welcome development.