Adimark poll: Piñera's approval rating goes up

Last Friday the Chilean polling company Adimark released its latest monthly government performance poll. It shows Piñera's approval at its highest level since he took office, with 53% up from 50% last month. The overall gov.'s approval rating also went up 4 points, from 51% to 55% after having dropped sharply from 60% in April.

Also, there are no surprises here when it comes to the income demographics of Piñera's approval rating. The highest income groups, "ABC1" below, still supports him the most. And there's a clear downward trend down the income ladder.

Piñera's honeymoon coming to an end

It seems Piñera's honeymoon is ending. Yesterday the polling company Adimark released it's monthly government approval poll, showing a small two point decline in Piñera's approval rating. Of course, this decrease is within the 3 point margin of error, but Piñera's rate of disapproval has shot up 13 points since last month, reaching 31 percent.

One odd result from last month's poll was that the overall government received a much higher approval rating than Piñera personally, 60 percent vs. 52 percent respectively. This result was in part attributed to public perceptions regarding his, at the time, unresolved conflict of interest due to the delayed sale of his LanChile shares. Well now, however, the approval rating for the government as a whole has dropped 9 points to 51 percent, more or less matching Piñera's own rating.

But what accounts for the precipitous drop? As can be seen below, much of it is explained by public perception of the government's handling of the earthquake. The left side shows approval to the government's help towards earthquake victims and the right shows approval of the reconstruction effort.

[Independently of your political orientation, do you approve or disapprove of the way Sebastian Piñera and his government are handing the following problems related to the earthquake?]

An interesting thing has also happened during the last month regarding the income demographics of his support: it has fallen among the wealthiest and registered a small increase among the poorest (though the latter is within the margin of error).

Now, all in all these results are still obviously quite good, reflecting the fact that so far Piñera has actually done a pretty decent job all things considered, contrary to the left's fears. Obviously, experiencing one of the largest earthquakes on record might change your political agenda slightly and prompt some to govern more pragmatically. But nevertheless, Piñera the consummate businessman deserves some credit. Who would've expected the business presidency to talk about increasing mining royalties, raise corporate taxes and raid the military's trust fund, even if it's to pay for the reconstruction?

Adimark poll: Bachelet remains popular after earthquake

Today the polling company Adimark reports that president Bachelet's approval rating remains at an impressively high 84% percent, despite cries that the government mismanaged the emergency relief effort. This poll provides a unique opportunity to determine the impact of government handling of the crisis on its approval rating since it was originally completed on Feb. 24, right before the earthquake. Instead of releasing the report on March 1 as originally scheduled, Adimark decided to a second round of polling to capture the public's response to the earthquake.

The report provides a breakdown of the data by social strata, showing that Bachelet's approval rating has taken a hit among the wealthy (group ABC1, below) even though this is the group presumably less affected by the earthquake--all those images of looting and populous rage following the earthquake must have really done a number on them.

[Independently of your political orientation, do you approve or disapprove of the way Michelle Bachelet is conducting her government?]

Interestingly, Bachelet's approval was the highest among the least wealthy, C3 and D/E, where her approval rating actually increased. Adimark also reports that, predictably, that Bachelet's approval rating was significantly lower in the areas most heavily affected by the earthquake (although the sample size for each area was too small to be worth reporting independently).

Significantly, Bachelet's handling of the emergency, though lower than her general approval rating, was also quite high at 75%. Now this takes me to my next point...

Who's this above you might ask? That's Alf Landon, the 33rd president of the United States, or at least according to the now defunct Literary Digest, whose infamous poll wrongly predicted Roosevelt's electoral defeat in 1936. Instead of losing the 1936 election, as Literary Digest predicted, Roosevelt defeated Landon by a landslide. The reason for this epic polling fail? Literary Digest conducted its poll by consulting mostly it's own readers, who were primarily wealthy, and through telephone interviews, which also biased the results.

But what does this classic textbook example of sample selection bias have to do with Chile's earthquake and Bachelet's handling of the emergency response?

Adimark's poll is based on phone interviews. Now, although Adimark is a reputable polling company and assures us that the results were corrected for "the level of telephone penetration in each region," I can't help but wonder if it properly accounts for the views of the most affected by the earthquake who, presumably, are in no position to complete a phone survey.

Of course, we shouldn't completely disregard the results of this poll and overstate the potential effect of this bias. It's just that a one sentence explanation of the methodology used in the report isn't exactly reassuring...just saying. In my opinion Bachelet has done a decent job and has exuded confidence throughout both the financial crisis and now the earthquake. It is also possible that there are widespread negative reactions to the government response but that these are limited to other members of the administration and simply haven't stuck to Bachelet herself. Whatever the case, it seems the voices on the Right predicting that the emergency response will forever stain Bachelet's legacy have been silenced for now.