Best Breakdown of the First Round in Colombia

Want the most detailed, complete breakdown of the first round available? Check out the coverage at FiveThirtyEight. Geographical breakdown? Check. Vote by poverty level? Check. Exactly how bad were the polling companies? Check. Does Mockus have a chance? Check (and the answer is pretty clearly no).

As a teaser lets rip the image showing the polling companies margin of error:



Gross. Go check out the whole post, which is definitely worth a read. Here's to hoping they keep the international coverage going.

(side note: congrats to FiveThirtyEight for partnering up with the New York Times)

Market Reaction to First Round in Colombia

Just a quick look at the market reaction to Sunday's election. There was a lot of talk about how Mockus didn't scare investors, that may be true, but there is a lot of coverage today about how happy the markets are at Santos' big first round. As Marcelo Ballve pointed out, there was some risk surrounding the "unpredictability factor", and so Santos' big win appears to have taken that out of the equation.


First, Reuters:

The peso currency and benchmark TES bonds firmed on Monday, while the country's risk rating on JPMorgan's EMBI Plus index fell 8 points to 231 points.

"Now there is much more certainty about what might happen and what lies in store for the country. As well economic matters, the teams are well regarded. That generates stability and confidence recovers," said Alexander Cardenas, director of economic research at Colombian brokerage Acciones and Valores.

And, from Bloomberg:

The yield on Colombia’s benchmark 11 percent bonds due July 2020 fell three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 8.04 percent at 11:02 a.m. New York time, according to Colombia’s stock exchange. The bond’s price rose 0.207 centavo to 120.003 centavos per peso.

…

“The market knows Santos,” said Bertrand Delgado, a senior Latin America economist at Roubini Global Economics, a research company in New York.

So Mockus may not have been bad, but the markets have spoke, and they clearly like Sunday's results. At least for now, it appears the country does too (I know polling in Colombia is notoriously bad, but seriously, you gotta wonder about this one, right?).

News and Notes on the Colombia Election

Always a lot of coverage of the Colombian presidential election, and today is no exception, so here are just a few links to some interesting bits and pieces:

• Al Jazeera has a video report up where Teresa Bo looks at how the false positive scandal is hurting Santos' campaign. She speaks with family members of the victims, as well as presidential candidate Rafael Pardo and researchers who claim that the killings continue.
  
  
• La Silla Vacia looks at the internet campaign of Santos. The dirty tricks continue. They also note that yet another American is in on the campaign, Ravi Singh, who was the internet guru of the Obama campaign. Read the whole thing, they're really going all out. (via Colombia Reports)
  
  
• More beef between Polo and Mockus. Mockus had said that nominating Petro was "a clear departure from the FARC", a slap in the face to the rest of the party. For some good commentary on alliances between candidates, check out Otto's comment here.
  
  
• Want to know what regions support Santos? Semana has the answer. For full coverage of the elections, check out Votebien 2010.
  
  
• Finally, some more polling. Everything is pointing to the race tightening back up as we get closer and closer. Still doesn't seem like anyone has a chance in the first round, things should get real interesting in the second.

No Green Polos in Colombia

Back in early April (when Mockus was polling under 10%), maladjusted pointed out that a recent political alliance between two popular mayors might just shake up Colombia's presidential elections....well that certainly has happened, as Mockus and Santos seem to be just about neck and neck in every poll and Mockus is now the favorite in a possible second round. But another part of the equation was whether or not support from the left was forthcoming, and now we seem to have an answer. After Gustavo Petro of the left-leaning Polo Democratico hinted at a possible second round alliance, Mockus had the cold water ready:

Colombian Green Party presidential candidate Antanas Mockus ruled out any partnership with Polo Democratico leader Gustavo Petro on Monday, saying that the Green's only alliance would be with "the people."

Prompting a Petro response via twitter (god damn the tweeter), "Good bye Mockus, we'll go it alone."

Really, this was probably a bigger deal before Mockus took off in the polls, and he probably is confident that he can win without Polo's support, but recent polling shows that it wouldn't be insignificant. According to the most recent poll from Datexco, Petro is now in third place with 7.5% of the vote, moving ahead of conservative Noemi Sanin. Mockus is no lefty, and he's largely toed the line in terms of backing "democratic security" policies, so maybe the alliance with Petro was never destined to be. But if Mockus does win the election he's not going to find a lot of love in congress, where the Green Party is not well represented, and if your going to reach out to someone it best be Polo over PIN. Of course, regardless of political alliances, left-leaning voters will have to choose between Santos and Mockus in a potential second round...not exactly a hard choice for the left, even if your not a big Mockus fan.

In any case lets take a look in chart form at the most recent polling from Datexco, via the irreplaceable Colombia Reports:

Smear Campaign in Colombia

Man, Santos sure is getting desperate. Colombia Reports writes today about the increasing use of smear tactics in the Colombia presidential campaign, "As Green Party candidate Antanas Mockus' popularity increases, so too do the attempts to sully his name." Last week banners started appearing with slogans criticizing Mockus, trying to tie his campaign to Chavez. CR continues:

Votebien political analyist Rodrigo Lozada says that the tactics seen today in Colombia "were copied from the campaigns in the United States. The idea is find the opponents' weak points, exaggerate and distort them, to make them look bad before society."

Maybe not such a surprise, given James Carville's role in the campaign...a smear campaign in Bolivia led to the election of Goni...another one of Carville's campaigns. But there is another political consultant who showed up in Colombia in recent days that probably better explains the situation, CR has the dirt:

Santos has relaunched his campaign strategy with Venezuelan spin doctor J.J. Rendon at the helm. Rendon has been called an "expert in rumorology" and 'the king of 'black' propaganda." In 2007 the Venezuelan publicist was almost deported due to accusations that he had blackmailed Congressman Nicolas Uribe by threatening that he would publish photos of the politician cavorting with prostitutes if Uribe didn't fire a certain employee. Uribe resigned from the Partido de la U campaign in protest when Santos contracted Rendon.

Since Rendon's arrival on the scene, a pro-Santos website has been launched, which attempts to discredit Mockus. The same banners that appeared in Cali are published on the website, along with videos and a cartoon depicting Mockus as Chavez's buddy. Again the inference is that Mockus is pro-Chavez atheist, who plans to extradite President Uribe.

Ah yes, Rendon (the one between Lobo and Uribe in the pic above)...who you might remember led the voter fraud charge in Venezuela in the 2004 referendum. Rendon also ran the campaign of former Venezuela president Carlos Andres Perez (eventually arrested for stealing public money) back in the 1980s, as well as doing PR work for Venezuelan defense ministers....ya know the defense ministers who killed hundreds of civilians during the Caracazo. He is especially notorious in Mexico, where, as Al Giordano pointed out, he was implicated in eight different criminal cases in 2001 for "printing anonymous propaganda… in which the proposals of the PAN party candidate for the mayoralty of Puebla, Luis Paredes Moctezuma, were distorted." Recently, he was seen shaking hands and advising Pepe "reconciliation" Lobo in Honduras. Sure is some good company Santos is keeping these days. Already since he joined the campaign, three of Santos' closest assistants have left the campaign, probably not too excited about cavorting with someone with such a lovely past as Rendon.

I don't think this is going to cut it though. His presence has already gotten a ton of press in Colombia and throughout the region, and its not exactly a secret what a slime ball this guy is. If Mockus is popular because he represents a change from "politics as usual", then a "politics as usual" smear campaign is not going to do the trick. Nice try Santos.

Mockus good for business?

So maladjusted hasn't done any scientific study on this, but the guess is that most casual observers would think the Colombian business community will support Santos in the upcoming election. It's not like Mockus' rise in the polls is rattling the markets or anything like that, but business generally likes continuity (and right wingers), not newcomers who dress up in super hero costumes and dispatch mimes to ridicule traffic violators. That said, one thing businesses like even more are profits. Currently, exports to Venezuela have collapsed (due to some testy relations, we'll say) and while the US has graciously stepped in (see the graphs below), the fact remains that Venezuela is right next door and even though they are pushing an FTA with the US, does Colombia really want to be EVEN MORE dependent on the US (just look at Mexico).

According to Reuters, "Colombia says the trade conflict could trim around one percent off its economic growth this year." That ain't no joke, especially not when your coming off this past year. The article also mentions that Colombia has relatively few exports to China compared to the rest of the region. So maybe to the extent that China takes the place of Venezuela that could be a good thing, but it seems the US is picking up most of the slack.


So this is where Mockus' statements about Venezuela come into play. During the presidential debate the other night Mockus stressed the need to separate relations with Venezuela from those with the US. This would be a serious break from the Uribe years in Colombia, where it seemed like their privileged relationship with the US was always put before everything else. Given that Colombia's neighbors aren't too thrilled with Santos, it seems pretty clear that Mockus would be the candidate most likely to repair relations with Venezuela and Ecuador. And who stands to benefit the most from that? Colombian exporters...



So maybe I'm over estimating the effect this is having, and how important this is for Colombian businesses (in which case let me know). Regardless, from everything I've read Mockus' economic policies would not differ much from Santos, and in any case it would be hard to argue that better regional relations would be a BAD thing for business.

(all images courtesy of Colombia's DANE)

Quote(s) of the Day

First, from Miguel d'Escoto the former President of the UN General Assembly on the US' role in the region, via Democracy NOW!:

We need the United States as much as we need arsenic, and that is the fact. We don’t need it. We would need it, if they wanted to join the rest of humanity and together work for a better future for all of us, but they are not doing that. They are instilling, they have instilled, a culture of death, of greed, of selfishness. And this is killing the world.

Word. And secondly and more comical, from Colombia presidential candidate and former Defense Minister Juan Manual Santos, describing the differences between him and Antanas Mockus, via Colombia Reports:

"I am different from him in many ways. Firstly, I shaved off my beard. I believe in God. I believe in having an army."

My preference is for beards...and atheism and no army for that matter...

Bogotá Cambió

So who is this Antanas Mockus guy? I mean, we all know he's a presidential candidate in Colombia and is rapidly rising in the polls... but who is Mockus the man? Where does he come from and what makes him tick?

Well now you can find out. The man was hugely successful as two-time mayor of Bogotá, where he set off what is arguably the strangest, most post-modern, and all around awesome process of urban renewal ever. As just one example that doesn't even begin to scratch the surface, this guy fired 3200 officers of Bogotá's notoriously corrupt traffic police and... replaced them with traffic mimes! Yes, mimes whose job it was to enforce traffic laws. Could I make this shit up?

And you know what's the real kicker? His unorthodox approach to city politics, inspired by his background in philosophy, paid off. But don't believe me, watch the great documentary below. And when I say great, I mean balls to the wall awesome. Cuddle up with a blanket and some popcorn and enjoy.

Oh and did I mention that before running for major he was the president of the National University of Colombia and...umm... mooned an auditorium full of people? True story.

Here's part 1:



part 2, part 3, part4, part 5, part 6, part 7.