No Green Polos in Colombia

Back in early April (when Mockus was polling under 10%), maladjusted pointed out that a recent political alliance between two popular mayors might just shake up Colombia's presidential elections....well that certainly has happened, as Mockus and Santos seem to be just about neck and neck in every poll and Mockus is now the favorite in a possible second round. But another part of the equation was whether or not support from the left was forthcoming, and now we seem to have an answer. After Gustavo Petro of the left-leaning Polo Democratico hinted at a possible second round alliance, Mockus had the cold water ready:

Colombian Green Party presidential candidate Antanas Mockus ruled out any partnership with Polo Democratico leader Gustavo Petro on Monday, saying that the Green's only alliance would be with "the people."

Prompting a Petro response via twitter (god damn the tweeter), "Good bye Mockus, we'll go it alone."

Really, this was probably a bigger deal before Mockus took off in the polls, and he probably is confident that he can win without Polo's support, but recent polling shows that it wouldn't be insignificant. According to the most recent poll from Datexco, Petro is now in third place with 7.5% of the vote, moving ahead of conservative Noemi Sanin. Mockus is no lefty, and he's largely toed the line in terms of backing "democratic security" policies, so maybe the alliance with Petro was never destined to be. But if Mockus does win the election he's not going to find a lot of love in congress, where the Green Party is not well represented, and if your going to reach out to someone it best be Polo over PIN. Of course, regardless of political alliances, left-leaning voters will have to choose between Santos and Mockus in a potential second round...not exactly a hard choice for the left, even if your not a big Mockus fan.

In any case lets take a look in chart form at the most recent polling from Datexco, via the irreplaceable Colombia Reports:

Killer Combo Could Shake up Presidential Election in Colombia

The newest polling data on the presidential elections does not really paint a different picture than anything in the past , but there is some important news from over the weekend that could change the landscape a bit.



As you can see Santos has a pretty decent lead, but not over 50%, which would result in a run-off election. Based on the polls he would face off with either Sanis or Mockus. Which is where the important news comes in, last week Mockus invited former Medellin Mayor Sergio Fajardo to be his running mate. Well, it looks like Fajardo will accept and the duo could seriously pose a threat to Santos, even with his star adviser James Carville at his side. Before municipal elections last month Fajardo was polling second behind either Santos or Uribe, depending on who would/could run. After his party flopped in the municipal elections, however, his polling dropped as well, making him a nice target for Mockus, whose Green Party did better than expected.

Personally, I still think Santos is probably the favorite, but the Polo and Liberal parties will have to decide whether or not to put their support behind the Mockus/Fajardo ticket. With a little more support from the left, and who knows, maybe a scandal or two, this could get very interesting. If this goes to a run-off with Santos v. Mockus/Fajardo it could be a dramatically different presidential election than what many have expected; which was that no serious contender would change Uribe's policies. A serious challenger from the center-left could open up the terms of debate in Colombia, and that should be a welcome development.