Mockus good for business?

So maladjusted hasn't done any scientific study on this, but the guess is that most casual observers would think the Colombian business community will support Santos in the upcoming election. It's not like Mockus' rise in the polls is rattling the markets or anything like that, but business generally likes continuity (and right wingers), not newcomers who dress up in super hero costumes and dispatch mimes to ridicule traffic violators. That said, one thing businesses like even more are profits. Currently, exports to Venezuela have collapsed (due to some testy relations, we'll say) and while the US has graciously stepped in (see the graphs below), the fact remains that Venezuela is right next door and even though they are pushing an FTA with the US, does Colombia really want to be EVEN MORE dependent on the US (just look at Mexico).

According to Reuters, "Colombia says the trade conflict could trim around one percent off its economic growth this year." That ain't no joke, especially not when your coming off this past year. The article also mentions that Colombia has relatively few exports to China compared to the rest of the region. So maybe to the extent that China takes the place of Venezuela that could be a good thing, but it seems the US is picking up most of the slack.


So this is where Mockus' statements about Venezuela come into play. During the presidential debate the other night Mockus stressed the need to separate relations with Venezuela from those with the US. This would be a serious break from the Uribe years in Colombia, where it seemed like their privileged relationship with the US was always put before everything else. Given that Colombia's neighbors aren't too thrilled with Santos, it seems pretty clear that Mockus would be the candidate most likely to repair relations with Venezuela and Ecuador. And who stands to benefit the most from that? Colombian exporters...



So maybe I'm over estimating the effect this is having, and how important this is for Colombian businesses (in which case let me know). Regardless, from everything I've read Mockus' economic policies would not differ much from Santos, and in any case it would be hard to argue that better regional relations would be a BAD thing for business.

(all images courtesy of Colombia's DANE)